Last week, in the premiere of Five Lines we Love, we went 2-3 in our picks against the spread. Ironically enough, we lost our three “favorite” lines, and nailed #4 and #5 on the list. For some people, their NFL preseason picks have either started off on a great note, or stumbled out of the starting blocks. Let’s take a look at the bets that we love the most in this week’s action! In general, I try to avoid going against home underdogs, but we are chalk full of them in this NFL Week 2.
1. New England (-3) at Minnesota
Everything was going according to plan for Patriots fans in their season opener, dominating the Dolphins at halftime. Then, the unexpected happened, as the Patriots got blown out in the second half, on their way to a rare season opening loss under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Well if losing the season opener is rare, losing the first two games would be unprecedented. Minnesota looked impressive in their opener, but I’m not buying that a big win over a beat up St Louis team means these guys are suddenly playoff contenders. Look for New England to move the ball with ease, and win this game by at least a touchdown.
2. New Orleans (-6) at Cleveland
Pretty much everything that I said about the Patriots above can be said about the Saints here. New Orleans had a war to open the season, losing a hard fought, overtime thriller to fierce rivals Atlanta. On the other side, the Browns looked god awful in the first half against Pittsburgh before storming back and nearly pulling off an amazing upset. Now, both teams are trying to avoid an 0-2 hole, but it means more to the Saints, who still have hopes of claiming that pivotal #1 seed in the NFC. Expect Brees and company to come out on fire, and hold a steady 10-14 point lead all game.
3. Arizona (-3) at New York Giants
Despite the 4-0 preseason, many speculated that the Giants would struggle mightily this year, and boy did they look bad on Monday Night Football at Detroit. Eli Manning looks lost at times with this new offense, and we all know how prone Manning can be to making silly mistakes when his team is behind. Add on the fact that the Cardinals secondary is full of playmakers who will be looking to pounce on these ill advised throws, and I could see a blowout here on the road for Arizona. Look for a few big defensive plays to give the Cardinals short fields as they shoot out to a 2-0 start on the season, while the Giants will be left wondering where they go from here.
4. Green Bay (-8) vs. New York Jets
Are you sensing a theme here? I’m going hard on the 0-1 teams that look to be playoff contenders this week. The Packers had the toughest assignment of anyone in opening week, playing a night game in Seattle against that vaunted defense. They weren’t able to pull off the massive upset, but the benefit is that they’ve had three extra days to rest following that game. Now, they have their home opener against a Jets team that is certainly improved from last year, but isn’t close to great. I expect Aaron Rodgers and company to come out firing and get the crowd in the game early. This game could have blowout written all over it, and I’ll gladly take a single digit spread here.
5. Jacksonville/Washington under 43 points
Going to mix it up a bit here and go with a over/under point spread. Last week, the Jaguars looked to be the surprise team of the week, shooting out to a 17-0 lead over the Eagles. And then, they remembered they were the Jacksonville Jaguars, falling flat and going scoreless in the second half. And then there was Washington, who looked as bad as St. Louis on the offensive side of the ball. RG3 is a shell of the quarterback he was before his knee injury two years ago, and he looks awful at times on the field. While I certainly expect him to have a better game this week, I also think both offenses will continue to struggle. Look for a final score in the area of 20-10, which shouldn’t come close to flirting with the point spread of 43 points.
What do you think of our lines for NFL Week 2? What is your favorite bet of the week? Let us know in the comments!