We apologize once again for not bringing you another installment of NFL: Beyond The Numbers this week, but “Vegas” Dave and I decided that we both needed a bye week, just like the NFL players. Having said that, we still wanted to get some picks in this week to go towards our weekly bets, so we each did a write up on our favorite picks of the week. Check them out below.
KT’s Picks: 11-8-2 Upsets: 3-4
Pick #1: Chargers -3.0 at Cleveland
This spread has trap written all over it, but I’m jumping right in. San Diego is coming off a bye week, meaning they’ve had two weeks to stew over that absurd loss to Denver on Monday Night Football. Phillip Rivers had one of the worst halves of football we’ve ever seen from a QB, but he tends to bounce back well from bad games. Combine that with the fact that Trent Richardson is beat up, and this has blowout written all over it, even in Cleveland. I expect the Chargers to rack up points here, and I don’t think Cleveland has the firepower to keep up, even against a San Diego defense that hasn’t done much to impress anyone.
Pick #2: Philly -2.0 vs. Atlanta
One of the most astonishing figures in all of football in recent years is Andy Reid’s record after a bye week: 13-0. Having said that, Atlanta is one of the toughest draws you can get after a bye, as the Falcons are the lone undefeated team in football, not to mention they too are coming off a bye. But the Falcons have been winning close games, and in my opinion, they are due to lose one. In order for Philly to win, they will have to get Lesean McCoy, a player who is so easily forgotten in the play calling, the ball a ton. Desean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin will also need to make some big plays. Since this game is in Philly, I give them the slight edge, in a game that I think will be decided by one possession.
Pick #3 Chicago -9.0 vs. Carolina
Originally, I had St. Louis +7 here thinking it was in St. Louis, then I saw that it was in London. Quick side note: the fact that there is a regular season game in London is absolutely ridiculous, and a blatant money grab by the NFL. I’m all for exposure of the game abroad, but in a regular season, teams only have eight home games. EIGHT!! To have one less is such a huge disadvantage and is incredibly unfair. And of course, the Rams lose the home game, because god forbid the Patriots have one less home game right? But I digress.
I didn’t love any of the remaining picks on the board, so I went with the one that would seem most logical. The Carolina Panthers are bad. Like, really bad. And the Chicago Bears are good. Like, really good. This game has blowout written all over it. The Bears defense has more play makers then the Panthers offense, and on the opposite side of the ball, the Bears offense shouldn’t have any issues moving the ball against a bad Carolina defense. If you crunch the numbers, it seems like more often then not, the Bears win this one by double digits.
Upset Pick: Colts +3.5 at Tennessee
I don’t love this pick, but despite the Titans’ recent success, I think the Colts are the better team. Matt Hasselback will be starting again, and I think that will benefit the Colts, who like to get outside pressure on the QB. Road games are always tough, but I think the defensive line for the Colts can get pressure on the QB, and even with the potential that Donald Brown could be out, I like this matchup for Andrew Luck and the Colts.
Vegas Dave Picks: 9-12 Upsets: 3-4